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Whether George W. Bush's 300-vote lead in Florida survives the week or Al Gore springs from behind based on manual recounts of ballots in Palm Beach County, the next president is likely to have serious trouble with Congress.

Let's consider here the scenario confronting a new Bush administration. Currently 200,000 votes behind in the national popular vote, Bush's claim to office would hinge on a formal Electoral College majority predicated on a vote-counting process in Florida that one can fairly conclude excluded hundreds, if not thousands, of ballots intended for his opponent. Not only will there be no mandate, his fundamental political legitimacy will be questioned. The storm clouds are swirling.

Will the Congress help Bush? Contrary to the experience of Gerald Ford, who was duly appointed but had no electoral base and could accomplish little with a Democratic Congress during his limited term, both houses will possess Republican majorities. But the margins will be precariously slim - no better than 222-211 (plus two independents) in the House of Representatives and 51-49 in the Senate. In a legislature that grants relatively little leverage to simple majorities, and multiple opportunities for harassment by the minority party, these are far from being working majorities. Given the bitter, polarized climate in Washington and the belief of many that a Bush win was clawed inappropriately from Gore's real victory, Democrats would be in no mood at all to help the new president. Add intense winds and driving rain to the scene.

Bush, though, may face even more difficulty with his own party. Staunch conservatives like Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott and House Republican Whip Tom Delay have waited far too long for this opportunity to recast American government to patiently abide Bush's rhetoric of compassion, moderation, and incrementalism. After being bludgeoned by Clinton's veto pen, they will want to test-drive Bush's ability to sign new legislation embracing conservative themes - if they can hold together enough to get it past the Democrats. In their fervor, they could sink both their majorities and their administration. Taken together, the forces at play could have George Bush playing George Clooney's part in "The Perfect Storm," clinging to a capsizing boat as it crashes into a political tidal wave.

What we cannot predict is what lessons Republican leaders have derived from 1952, the last time they held both the White House and Congress. Then the congressional numbers were remarkably similar - 221-213 in the House and 48-47 in the Senate. Unlike George W. Bush, however, the Republican president was Dwight D. Eisenhower, so popular that Democrats sought him as their standard bearer. With 55% of the popular vote and 442 of 531 votes in the Electoral College, there was no question about his legitimacy. Although the Democrats recaptured both the House and Senate two years later, Eisenhower served two terms, won a landslide re-election and charted a path not into a storm but towards bipartisan accommodation. Most of his legislative initiatives were enacted, often by consensus. Even Clinton could find common ground with a Republican Congress. Will Bush have the aura, the skill or the legitimacy to find the allies he needs in D.C.?

Mark A. Peterson is a professor of policy studies and political science.