Exactly how much is the Internet changing the future of the nation's economy? The answer might not be what you'd expect.

On Dec. 11, 300 gathered in The Anderson School's Korn Convocation Hall to hear academic and industry experts on "How the Internet is Changing the Future: What Every Business Needs to Know about the New Economy." The program, part of the 49th annual UCLA Anderson Forecast, was co-sponsored by the Price Center for Entrepreneurial Studies, the High-Tech Business Association and the Entrepreneur Association.

High on the agenda was a discussion of the information-driven new economy vs. the structure-and-equipment-centered old economy.

"The personal productivity tools and communication devices of the new economy do seem to have magical powers, but these powers do not end the business cycle (with its periodic slowdowns)," said forecast director Edward E. Leamer, who projected a 60% chance that the Bush/Clinton economic expansion that began in 1991 will end this year. "Quite the contrary; the new economy has experienced a classic boom-and-bust cycle that is extraordinary only in its amplitude and brevity."

Visiting Professor Christopher Thorn-berg added in a report released at the conference: "It appears that to date, the U.S. is returning to the old economy of solid growth and low unemployment as witnessed prior to 1973. ... This is not to say that we are not in fact embarking into a new era of information technology-led economic development, only that the changes appear to be evolutionary, rather than revolutionary, and that the old rules are still firmly in place."

Still, none of the experts would deny that the Internet has indeed had a powerful impact on the national and local economy. UCLA economic forecaster Tom Lieser wrote in the report that, although the financial-market conditions that supported the state's high-tech boom have subsided, California's new high-tech market is worldwide in scope, unlike the aerospace business a decade ago. This should limit the extent and duration of the predicted downturn.

A panel of experts, including Alfred E. Osborne, director of the Price center, discussed the effects of the Internet on business, while management Professor Uday Karmarkar moderated a panel on how the Internet is changing the future of the old economy in the auto industry. Another panel, led by Anderson School Dean Bruce Willison, examined how the Internet is changing customer-relations and business models.

Perhaps most enthusiastic was computer science and conference keynote speaker Professor Leonard Kleinrock, the inventor of Internet technology. After describing the process of the Internet's development and predicting future uses, he added, "It's been a marvelous ride. ... We're just coming out of the Stone Age, 10 microseconds past the Big Bang.

"You ain't seen nothin' yet!"