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©2004
The Regents of the University of California
 

 
WHAT'S ON MY MIND
Iraq and bioweapons: When will evidence be enough?

BY PETER KATONA

There are many excellent reasons both for and against going to war with Iraq. Among these, the most important fact is that Iraq has weapons of mass destruction, particularly bioweapons, and would be willing to use them or sell them to others. This creates a very dangerous precedent for current and future dictators and terrorist groups.

Historically, the Iraqi regime has a well- documented history of WMDs. Iraq started its offensive bioweapons program in the mid-1970s. Unwittingly, the United States supplied Iraq with seed stocks for bioweapons until 1989. Nonetheless, in 1990 Iraq was still able to buy 40 top-of-the-line “aerosol generators” from an Italian company. Each was capable of dispersing 800 gallons of bio or chemical agent per hour.

Not only has Iraq developed WMDs, it has also put them to use. In the 1980s, Iraq used chemical weapons against Iran and the Kurds. Iraq’s potential to develop nuclear weapons was thwarted when Israel bombed its nuclear power plant in 1981. By 1991, Iraq’s influence in the region stemmed from its ability to bully its neighbors. To the Iraqis, the benefits of keeping their WMD programs alive were substantial, even at the risk of losing billions of dollars of oil revenues. Biological agents were their nuclear bomb. Even if they were never used, the rumor of their existence could make little nations take note and might give Western powers reason to pause.

After the first Persian Gulf War, weapons inspectors found 19,000 liters of botulinum toxin, 2,200 liters of aflatoxin and 8,500 liters of anthrax in Iraq’s arsenal. The Iraqis acknowledged filling 25 missiles and 157 bombs with anthrax and botulism toxin. They had 13 SCUDS loaded with botulism toxin, 10 with anthrax spores and two with aflatoxin. They also had 100 bombs loaded with botulism toxin, 50 with anthrax spores and 16 with aflatoxin, plus at least one remote-control MiG-21 with a 500-gallon sprayer.

So why weren’t these weapons used during the Persian Gulf War? There are several reasons. The United States made it clear that if used, Baghdad would be “returned to the Middle Ages.” There was a fear that Israel would retaliate with nuclear weapons. The chain of command was broken early in the war so Saddam Hussein possibly couldn’t give the order to use them. Lastly, they could contaminate their own people.

Between 1991 and 1998, when the last inspectors left, more than 10,000 warheads adapted for chemical and biological use were destroyed, yet thousands more are still unaccounted for. Baghdad claimed to have destroyed them but never provided proof.

Despite six years of the most aggressive inspection in arms-control history, the fate of more than 150 Iraqi bombs and warheads, as well as a dozen special nozzles to spray these germs from helicopters, has remained unknown. A veteran intelligence officer, commenting on Iraqi weapons inspections, said, “Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.”

Despite the dire consequences and the reluctance of others to act, the United States has to make a stand against these destructive weapons. While the reasons may seem uncertain, we can’t deny that these weapons pose a threat to the stability of the entire world.

Katona is assistant professor of clinical medicine in the Department of Medicine.

 

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